Using our SEASTATES hindcast database, we have compared the conditions of the 2007 race with our forecasted conditions for 2015.

As Cowes Week comes to a close on Sunday 16 August, so sees the beginning of the Fastnet Race. The offshore yacht race starts at Cowes on the Isle of Wight, sending competitors westward down the English Channel and into the Celtic Sea, round Fastnet Rock off the southwest coast of Ireland, then heading back round the Isles of Scilly before finishing in Plymouth. The race takes place every two years, and typically around 300 competitors across various yacht classes take part. 

The Fastnet is a challenging offshore race with competitors often having to tackle strong to gale-force winds. One year with particularly difficult conditions was the 2007 race. Severe weather warnings delayed the start by 25 hours; once the race was underway, overnight gale force winds and extreme seas forced 207 of 271 boats to retire.

Using our SEASTATES hindcast database, we have compared the conditions of the 2007 race with our forecasted conditions for 2015: 

2007 race

15/8/07 at 21:00 in the seas off Land’s End average wind speeds of up to 26 knots were encountered. Wave heights of 4m Hs, with maximum wave heights of up to 7.5m saw many racing crews scupper their plans to complete the race and opt to retire while still in one piece.

2015 race predictions

16/8/15 will see light winds of 4-9 knots, gusting 14 knots backing West-South-West to East-South-East. Visibility will be cloudy and settled. Wave heights will be 2m with max wave heights of 4m, and sea states will be approximately half that in the English Channel.

17/8/15 will be a day of light winds (8 knots, gusting 11 knots) from the East. Visibility will again be cloudy but settled, and cloud cover will reduce into the evening. Wave heights will be 1.5m, with max wave heights 2.5m, and again sea state will be half that in the English Channel.

Sailing conditions for this year’s race should be far less eventful than 2007; we wish all competing yachts the best of luck.

Learn more about our SEASTATES hindcast database, or sign up for a free trail of our global downtime calculator, Weather Downtime Express.

^{Visibility and cloud cover source: Met Office
Image copyright: Carlo Borlenghi}